Personal Blog

HPV Vaccine - Fainting/Seizures/Side Effects Chart

Posted by K Krasnow Waterman on Sun, Sep 30, 2007 @ 19:09 PM

 

NOTE: TABLE REPLACED IN NEW BLOG DATED 3/27/08

 

In reponse to many of the comments, I invite people to write in suggestions for how to get this information out. Also, please consider emailing this link to your friends, doctors, elected officials, etc.


Also, please note that much of the source material is comments to two earlier personal blogs (which are still posted at this site). The vaccine side effects reporting system, VAERS, is described in this blog.

-----------------------------------

 

It took longer than expected, but I've finally built a table from all the comments so far. As I've mentioned, I'm concerned about the adverse reactions to the HPV vaccine and how little is known yet. I'm hoping that gathering this information will help solve the mystery of what's causing them.

I'm not a medical researcher, so apologies if my methods are not perfect.

Since we know there are lots of folks who don't have reactions, I didn't include those in the table. The one exception to that rule is where someone wrote about siblings, in case that helps to rule out genetic predisposition.

Also, I included who wrote the comment in case they'd like to write back now and fill in the blanks.

If you've had a negative reaction or know someone who has, please submit a comment with as much of the information for the table as possible.



HPV.vacc.table


Age Size Known

Allergies

or Other

 Shot Admin.

With

 Time

After

Reaction Commenter








17
low blood

pressure?

 1st Meningitis

Hep A

TB test

10 min. Fainted snail

re: self
13

1st Gardasil 2 to 3 min. collapsed ... fainted ... became rigid Patricia

Doughty RN

re: daughter




"several other

vaccines"

 within

5 min.

 seizure... now hopitalized with slurred speech and left-side weakness Carol

re: daughter
21
I was healthy and athletic

up until the vaccine

 1st

or

2nd
continuing

over

8 months

 have fainted 20 time since shot ... has been hospitalized ...

under the care of a cardiologist.

 Blondie

re: self
14 &

17

1st None 1 month 14-year-old had a seizure with rigid left side.

(same side as shot)

 Maria

re: two

daughters
12

1st
7 days fainted at home Monica Della-Quercia

re: daughter
13

& 16

1st Meningitis

Hep A

 within

minutes

 13 year-old: fainted....short seizure type episode...

received oxygen

 Anonymous

re: daughters
21
no medical problems,

no allergies

active and healthy person

 3rd
2 hours ...fainted and had a seizure.

... taken to the ER by ambulance

blood work and CT Scan ... negative.

... outpatient EEG ....abnormal

 JV

re: daughter


"dizzy rigth at first ... is normal

for me with any shot"t

 1st Meningitis within

5 minutes

 ... dizzy ... collapsed (no loss of concious)

treated with food and drink

 Ashley

re: self


"dizzy rigth at first ... is normal

for me with any shot"t

 2nd
3 days? severe itching ....rash on my back, leg, & arm

Ashley

re: self

18

1st Chicken pox
... past week ....fever/nausea/daily vomiting Erin

re: friend
16

2nd
"a month

or two"

 ... abnormal menstruation ... really spotty and other symptoms Robin

re: self
11


4 others
.. shot area swelled ... was red and ichy for days Michele

re: daughter
23

2nd

... cramping of arm

later became "itchy all over" and developed yeast allergy

Ashley

re: self

2x

17 Small

5'6"

90 lbs
1st &

2nd

... passed out after shots 1 & 2 Victoria

re: self
20s Small

under

100 lbs



passed out Victoria

re: friend
15,

13, &

13

 Petite

Thin
3rd
Immediate

and

5 days

 All 3: ... burning fluid with shot ... very dizzy ....

headaches through the night

Re: one 13 year-old: 5 days after ... seizure ....no warning.

ambulance to hospital.

CT scan, chest xray, blood work, urinalysis, and MRI have all been normal

 Jeanie

re: her

3 daughters






Seizure?

"horrible reaction ...

cost me so much money in travel expenses and in seeing specialists"

 Jessica

re: daughter
25

3rd
Immediate "...sudden rush or fluid.

muffled hearing and very high pitched ringing...

gray and fuzzy sight...extremely hot and went pale

... "felt like I was going to drop dead right then."

 Melody

from

San Antonio

re; self
23 Med. never had an adverse reaction to an injection, giving blood, etc. 1st
"about a

minute"

 "Fainted and fell off of the examining table" AM

re: self
21 Med. "no medical problems and no allergies" 3rd
1 hour "seizure"

hospital blood work, urinalysis, EKG, CT Scan of the head - all negative.

Follow up with neurologist. MRI which was negative.

EEG showed some abnormalities

24 hour ambulatory EEG was negative

 Joanne

re: daughter


"very healthy athlete who

has never had any medical issues previously"

 3rd
about

1 1/4 hours

 "seizure"

fell on cement pool deck, hitting head, ... bad concussion ... lost consciousness.

... ambulance to hospital

CT done, blood work done, and deemed well enough to go home.

... huge lump on her head and the whole side of her head is swollen from the fall

 Sara

re: daughter
24 med "work out 4-5 days a week"

"never had a seizure before

nor do I have any known allergies

or other medical conditions"

 2nd
10 min. "blacked out ...two seizures" estimated 2-3 minutes

stopped from falling off table

...hurt neck...

during seizure, arched back and flung head

gained consciousness during second seizure

...shaking, ...drooling, and loss of orientation

...clouded vision and muffled hearing

ambulance ... blood pressure ... 120/80

 Kim K

re: self
16
none 1st

...very faint ...felt nauseated ...cold sweat ...

could barely walk. then, ... almost fainted

 Marina

re: self
25 med "asthma... allergic to cats" 1st and 2nd

sore arm ...significant stomach pains day of 1st & 2nd shot. ...

...painful menstruation after 1st shot

...very early and painful, heavy menstruation after 2nd shot

vomiting and nausea the following week

 Bernadette

re: self
16



10 sec. seizure

... lost bladder control ... eyes rolled back ... body rigid ... arms moving

...no recollection of seizure

... memory of bright light approaching fast

... rushed to hospital

 Beth

re: daughter
18

2nd
1 day

same day

 interimittent, involuntary hand shaking

very sore injection arm

Sharon

re: daughter
31 above

avg.

 no allergies 1st none 10 min. painful ...fainted

no fainting after 2nd and 3rd shot

but, fainted again recently on a plane

 Tania Lopez

re: self
12

1st

fainting, dizziness, seizures, hallucinating

no memory of them

more than ten occurrences

banned from school until resolved

Latoya

re: niece
16

1st

fainted on my way to the reception desk.

(required to remain prone for 20 min after 2nd, and no fainting)

Emily

re: self
17 Small

5'7"

105

menengitis, tetanus minutes collapsed

rushed to er by ambulance

3 days later suffering from severe abdomenal pain

elevated wbc count ,blood in urine ,

negative for kidney stones or appendicitis

Ed

re: daughter

(2x)
26 5'8"

128
1st

and

2nd

 (taking

Topamax

for mood)
many "mini-seizures"

"lots of " body jolts and unsteady movements

 Amber

re: self
13



immed.

dizzy ... "started to twitch and jolt"

Michelle

re: daughter
13


MMR,Meningitis shot and chicken pox

and blood draw
walked 50 feet and fainted

6 weeks later, feels run down

Sherry

re: daughter
13

All

3

2 weeks after 1st, 2 wks of severe fatigue

2 wks after 2nd, 3 wks of severe nausea and fatigue

3 wks after 3d, fatigue, nausea, weakness, headaches, and abmonial pain (more than 6 mon to-date)

So severe, now home schooled by the school district.

Will be seeing Boston children's hospital experts

 Aggie

re: daughter



3rd

extreme arm soreness/pain with lifting

(2 weeks to-date)

Jrehal

re: self
18 athletic none 1st &

2nd

 1st w/ Meningitis

2nd w/TB test

After 1st, sore joints and severe weakness for a few days

After 2nd, fainted, then vomited. Site itchy.

Weak for about 24 hours.

Ali

re: self






fainted and slept for 48 hours Lara Ward

re: daugher
14
very healthy, athletic,

no prior reactions to any shot

 1st Meningitis Immed. fainted and seizure Kristie

re: daughter
25
healthy, no meds, and no known allergy
 3rd

...blood pressure has changed
...Pre-vaccination: 100/60
Past 4 months: 120-130/75-85

Sara

re: self

14

1st
 meningitis
tetanus
...periods ...coming earlier ...more and more problems
...One month, ...black in color.
...in the hospital...fever, chills, nausea, convulsions, stomach pain, feeling faint, difficulty breathing, and headaches.
...cramps were worse than they've ever been
...tested...and...ct-scan...couldn't find anything
...developed depression...its been hell

Jessica

re: self




1st

fainted on the way to the reception desk

Kristen

re: self

24
running every day, extremely healthy

(for 6 months to date)
 blacked out and ...seizure
... experienced numbness and tingling in my arms, tachycardia (had to wear a heart monitor) and 24/7 dizziness.
MRI, EEG, EKG, urinary analysis, thyroid, ultrasounds of my heart, tilt table test and ... blood work
... doctors cannot figure out what is wrong but I strongly believe that it was the vaccine

Julia

re: self






3 to 4 weeks after appendicitis like symptoms - diagnosed as acid reflux, but much more severe... In bed for 3 weeks. Nauseated and unable to eat. Had endoscopy. Several medications. Not positive this is related to vaccine, but another young lady is experiencing the same symptoms.

Betsy Luck

re:

daughter

20

1st

&

2nd



After 1st shot...weakness, dizziness and sometimes tingling in arm. Also ear pain ...
After 2nd shot...dizziness and weakness is bad again.
... waiting on blood work and scheduled an MRI.

(Other daughter...no reaction)

Jane

re:

daughter

13

athletic, soccer player,

no medical issues

3rd

got dizzy and passed out turned blue and went into a seizure...going for EEG

Tammy

re:

daughter

18



right after shot
 convulsing and seizuring...very rigid...lasted about 5 minutes...eyes rolled in the back of my [head],...lost control of my bladder....face turned pale white and lips turned a purple color...Smelling salts did not help..stopped breathing several different times.

L

re: self

14




diagnosed with Hashimoto thyroiditis after 1st shot; enlargement noticed during 2nd shot

Brenda

re: daughter

19

1st
30 days

Severe acid reflux (no prior history); persistent nausea, vomiting (some blood),diarrhea motion sickness, abdominal pain, followed by weight loss (18 lbs in 6 wks, to date), painful menstruation.
Many medical tests, all normal, but illness has not subsided. Also experieced ear pain and extreme leg soreness near in time to shot.

Crystal Wade 2 Updates re: daughter
17

1st& 2nd
 1st w/meningitis
believe ongoing depression is correlated to first shot

Barbara re: daughter

20
 athletic build
 only allergy - long haired dogs & cats 2nd
1 day
 weakness, nausea, fever and dizzyness and i am still feeling these symptoms two days after the shot Marlene re: self

med
 very healthy; no allergies
 1st
mult.
 immed

almost fainted; great deal of pain; and had problems walking to the receptionist afterwards

(no problem w/2nd shot)

Dana re:daughter
19

 no allergies
 2nd

very sore arm (shot arm) persisted and increased more than one month as of writing; arm feels extremely weak and muscles feel all tensed up.

Legs hurt; it hurts to walk.

Diana Vo 2x

re: self




 2nd


 arm pain at time of shot and re-appeared 20 days later
 LA re: self
17
tall & thin

 1st

 immed
 Cried due to arm pain. Next day, fever & nausea
 Carol P re: daughter
15
 5'8" & 135
2nd


 abdominal pain, backpain and extreme fatigue
 Helen re:daughter
14
5'7" & 110
1st

 10 sec

"wicked" dizzy and had to lie down; non-stopping headache, and acheing all over.

Arm pain and aching continuing next day.

Dylan-Marie re: self
25
 5'7" & 130
 allergies: fine animal hair & dust
 1st

Severe pain in injection arm for 9 months to-date since shot. Initially couldn't lift arm above neck; 2.5 months physical therapy, shock, massage, etc. Told to expect more than 1 yr to recover

Pains in legs as well.

Bethany re: self

2x



prior seizures
 1st
immed

Extreme arm pain (normally no pain with shots).

Then fuzzy, dizzy, ear ringing, blacked out.

Cold sweat & "worst headache" after.

Haley re: self
17
 petite
 on depo-prevera birth control
 1st
 meningitis & MMR

Immed after 1st shot, felt very sick. problems with focusing and muscles very twitchy ever since. Often turn away from lights or screens because whole face starts twitching.

Later, after 14 months without menstruation due to birth control, menstruating 3days out of 4 for 5 weeks

Breann re: self



 1st
immed
 extreme dizzines, continuing through first day (time of writing)
 Daisy re: self





 1 min.
 passed out onto the floor and had a seizure and urinary incontinence. Her seizure lasted about 30 sec to 1 minute. She was confused and extremely sick to her stomach when she awakened. Sheila re: daughter



 2nd
few days

First, extreme leg tiredness and soreness.

Then, bad, sharp shooting pains in stomache; pains shooting down into legs & into chest.

Vision blurred .

White blood count in urine is elevated and platelet level is higher than normal.

Now has lost 20 lbs.

Had to take her out of college for at least the semester. Not showing signs of improving.

 Mary Knight re: daughter
19
Did not have severe acne during puberty 1st
one week

Quarter size welts -- red, swollen, painful to touch -- all over face for about three weeks, and started throbbing and itching.

New welts -- smaller but more -- appeared about one week after first abated

Welts went away at about 3 months, with some scarring.

 Erin re: self
11

1st?

 shortly after
in the car "began to seize"
 Jessica re: daughter
20

1st
about 1 week
horrible rash of hives all over her body during the night. The hives go away during the day, but are now beginning to occur on some parts of her body before night.
 Sue re: daughter
15
very athletic
 2nd

 next few weeks
 Complained of severe stomach pains; diagnosed with appendicitis. Had high white blood cell count in her urine. Still complains of stomach pains when she runs or does any other activity for an extended period of time.
 Cindy re: daughter
13
 5'3" & 110
1st & 2nd

first only had a sore arm.

Then back pain and has not had a period for 2 months.

Jennifer re: daughter
20
 5'7" & 135
 no prior allergic reactions
 1st

 within one minute

Became faint and dizzy. Wheelchaired to a seperate room to recover.

Whole left arm is still sore and VERY weak

 Angela re: self









































































































































































Article has 39 CommentsClick here to read/write comments

Topics: Gardasil, hpv vaccine, technology - medicine

Can parents force a child to have a vaccine?

Posted by K Krasnow Waterman on Sat, Aug 18, 2007 @ 08:08 AM
Yesterday, this comment was posted to my last blog about the hpv vaccine:

"do parents have the right to decide for you whether or not you receive this vaccine? im 16."

Boy, did that send chills up my spine!  Being in disagreement with your parents on an issue that can affect your future poses hard problems.

If you can talk this out directly with your parents, that would probably be best.  Or, if you know another adult they might listen to, consider getting that person to help you.   If this becomes a legal matter, you could end up in a situation in which you have to decide between the relationship you have with your parents and what you think is best for your health. 

As a lawyer, I cannot give you specific legal advice through this blog.  But... I can give you information that may help.

1) Wherever you are, there are laws about the age of majority; the line between being a "minor" who usually can't make important decisions about herself and an adult who can.  Depending upon where you are, you might already have the legal authority to make this decision. 

2) In some places there are different ages of majority.  For example, you may be able to get married without parental consent at 16, but not able to vote until 18, and not able to drink until 21. 

3) In the US, you'll find lots more law and discussion about a minor's right to consent to medical care than the right to refuse it.  Most of the "right to consent" issues have come up in the context of contraceptives and abortions.  Try searching on a minor's right to refuse.

4) In many jurisdictions, a minor can go to court to request permission to do something that his or her parents won't allow.  This is a very serious step.  It could change the nature of your relationship with your parents forever.

You can search the web or ask a local librarian how to find information on these topics.  If none of these give you the answer you need or want, in many locations you can get free legal advice and help, sometimes called "pro bono" legal services.  You can got some information about them by searching the web or calling the bar association for your city, county, or state. 

My best advice for nearly every situation in life is to stay calm, gather as much information as you can in the time you have available, and make the best judgment you can about who has your best interests at heart.



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Topics: Gardasil, hpv vaccine, technology - medicine, public policy

New York Street Economics

Posted by K Krasnow Waterman on Sat, Jun 09, 2007 @ 15:06 PM
After many years away, I'm spending the summer in Manhattan.  I've pined for New York - the joys of so much intellect, art, cuisine, and money shoe-horned into every square inch of a walker's paradise.  And, I missed being amongst so many old friends, cronies who knew the more delinquent precursor to my responsible grown up self.  Until arriving, though, I'd forgotten all about another New York pleasure: what I've taken to calling "New York Street economics". 

One of the things that distinguishes a New Yorker from a tourist or casual visitor is the confident navigation of everyday financial transactions.  Everyone who reads a guidebook knows that there are bargains to be had on designer samples, luggage, or electronics.  A New Yorker knows there are price variations on every block. 

My benchmarks are the 20 ounce bottle of Poland Spring water, the soft pretzel, and the small Mr. Softee chocolate cone with sprinkles.  Charges for that Poland Spring bottle vary from $1.00 to $2.50.  On my own block, the bodega charges $1.25 and the sandwich shop directly across the street charges $1.50.  The "true" street value, from newsstands and food carts is $1.00.  A soft pretzel ranges between $1.50 and $2.00.  The ice cream cone is $2.00.

Stated prices vary depending upon location, overhead, and perceived market sophistication.  The cart at the corner of 79th and York is far from the tourists and has a regular clientele of hospital staffers: pretzel - $1.50.  Most corners around the city, pretzels are $2.00.  But, on the west corners of 50th and Fifth Avenue, where the tourist throngs are oogling Rockefeller Center: pretzel - $3.00. 

True New Yorkers navigate like Bedouins in the bazaar.  It took me a few days, but one incident returned me to my roots.  There I was at the Rockefeller Center corner, ordering a pretzel and then asking the price; when I heard "$3.00" I simply raised an eyebrow handed back the bag and walked away.  As his voice faded from my hearing, he was still calling me back and had reached the below-market price of $1.00.  Now, when I want to buy one of these items, I order it, and simply hand over the amount that seems appropriate; anyone asking for more gets the merchandise back in his hand.
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Topics: NY, Manhattan, b2c customer service

Joost & the next generation of Adver-tainment

Posted by K Krasnow Waterman on Wed, Jun 06, 2007 @ 09:06 AM
The front page of yesterday's NY Times Business section used a lot of ink to tout the announcement of Joost's selection of Mike Volpi to be its new CEO.  But what really got me excited was a paragraph back on page C8 near the end of the article, which said that Joost would play with floating "ad bugs" in the corner of the screen after a commercial is over.  The bug is a little widget that will remind you of the brand and let you link to the advertiser's website. 

Carried to its logical conclusion, this promises a world where nothing and everything is an advertisement.  Imagine you're watching a tv show or movie (or whatever the next generation version of these are) on your pc (or phone or some other futuristic device).  You like the handbag Cameron Diaz is wearing in the scene, so you pause the show, click on the bag and find out who makes it, how much it costs, and are given the instant opportunity to purchase.   She meets Brad Pitt at his car and you can click on the car, his shirt, his sunglasses and get similar information Or, you could click on his pearly whites and find out which brand of toothpaste he uses; click on his haircut, find out who the hair stylist to the stars was who cut his and who in your area offers to reproduce it.  The Joost concept mentioned is to deliver targeted advertising, so maybe it will learn about you and know whether to tell you where to buy the $7,000 original, the $700 or the $17.95 knock-off.  And, maybe, you don't need to pause the action.  You could get a split screen or just a comment bubble like those already on some music videos. 

Imagine...no more commercial interruptions, but endless opportunities to satisfy vendors with product placement and to satisfy consumers with instant information.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

For those who don't have the burning desire to be the first with every form of new technology, Joost is a cool television- through-your-pc technology that lets you watch want you want when you want it.  Depending upon your age, think jukebox or TIVO, with the content already there.  At the moment, the programming is heavily skewed to the young male demographic -- it includes channels for Sports Illustrated Swimsuits, Indy500, Fights, Heavy Animation, etc.  In fairness, though, it does have National Geographic and Reuters and even Deepak Chopra on the Lime Channel.  

Joost is brought to you by the same folks who invited Skype.  (If you're way out of touch, Skype is the software that lets you talk to your friends in China or wherever through your pc, using your internet connection, and costing absolutely nothing).  Joost is in beta testing now and accounts are only available to those who were invited by a friend.  If you know me and you ask me, I'll send you an invitation.
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Topics: technology innovation, technology b2c

Product Idea - Games mashup

Posted by K Krasnow Waterman on Fri, Jun 01, 2007 @ 09:06 AM

For this Attention Deficit lifestyle where gaming has already reduced attention spans to nano-seconds, comes this "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" suggestion. How about gaming mashups? There you are playing Grand Theft Auto, when out of nowhere, the screen changes and you're in the middle of Assassin's Creed (at the same level, with points intact, of course). In the flash of eye, you've got to figure out where you are, what the rules are, and keep going. No boredom here.
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www.FARECOMPARE .com - great travel planning website!

Posted by K Krasnow Waterman on Wed, May 30, 2007 @ 21:05 PM
I admit it.  I often use Expedia or Travelocity just to find out who flies between two cities or who seems to have the best prices, and then make reservations directly with the airlines. Because my plans change frequently and the early versions of such sites didn't permit changes, I got in the habit of looking but not booking.  Today, I stumbled on www,FareCompare.com a site that's only purpose is to provide information.

 

I only had a few minutes, but I like it.  It's fast and incredibly user-friendly.  Everything seems to be click-able or drag-able.  I already found three features that I like. 

1) Route maps - Tell it a city and it will show you everywhere you can fly  nonstop from there (by continent) on a map.  At the same time, a sidebar shows cheapest prices to each destination.  If you click on one of those destinations, it will give you the option to see the dates/airlines with this cheap fare. 

2) Cheapest flight finder - Tell it a city pair and it will show you a month's calendar and with cheapest possible round-trip fare on each date.  Choose the outgoing date and it will show you a new calendar for the month with the cheapest possible round--trip considering the departure date you selected. 

3) Choose your time finder - Every site lets you say what date/time you want to leave and return.  FareCompare has a slider bar (one of my favorite software tools).  So, you can expand your search an hour at a time to see how many more flights there are or whether the prices are better.

FareCompare also has information for hotels, cars, and cruises. 


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Fun with Numbers - What Privacy?

Posted by K Krasnow Waterman on Mon, May 28, 2007 @ 12:05 PM
For most of us, privacy is an important issue.  We talk about, write about, sue each other over it, and debate the extent to which it is our Constitutional right.  We know that our original notions of privacy have been drastically eroded by the amount of data collected about us every day.  Every time you buy with a credit card, debit card, or even pay cash and use a discount card, the records are collected and aggregated.  Every time you pay a bill, borrow money, or ask to borrow money,  the information is collected and stored together.  There's work being done right now to do the same things with all of your medical records. 

What's happening to all this information?  Private companies are using the information to trying to figure out what to sell you next, whether to extend you credit, and to whom they can sell your name and information.  The government is using the information to try to figure out if you are a law-abiding citizen.  And, your friends, family, and acquaintances may be using it just to find out what you haven't told them directly.  (In response to a challenge recently, in five minutes on Google, I was able to retrieve a friend's secondary address, parent's and sibling's names, religion, political party affiliation, last job, current job, foreign language spoken, and a hint about his financial position.) 

Criminals want to gain access to your private personal information, too.  They want to use it to take advantage of you -- most typically by fraudulently posing as you and making credit purchases.  Some of them want to use or sell your identity more generally, in order for someone else -- typically an illegal immigrant or another criminal -- to be able to hide from the authorities by posing as you on a day-to-day basis. 

So, how likely is it that your private personal information will end up in the wrong hands? 

The most recent US Census statistics estimate that there are about 225 million adults in the US (aged 18 and over).  The Privacy Rights Clearinghouse has been trying to keep track of all of the instances when an organization has lost private personal information, including everything from hacker attacks on universities to laptops and disks lost by employees.  It's current total for 29 months (January 2005 to May 2007) is over 155 million records lost that contain information useful to identity thieves.  But, about 15% of the incidents do not have reported loss numbers; so, I estimate the true number to be around 182 million (155/.85).  And, that results in an estimate of approximately 75 million records lost or stolen per year (182 * 12/29).  Or, approximately 225 million records lost or stolen in three years.  Of course, this does not mean that every US adult's data will be lost or stolen in a three year period; some unlucky souls will have their data compromised more than once, while others will not be affected.

In addition to large scale losses of information by those we entrust with our digital data, there are lots of small scale ways to lose our personal information.  A Gartner Group analyst reported that 1.2 million Americans a year believe they have given their personal information to a criminal on the internet, but that same group is reported to have estimated that the true number for 2006 would be 3.5 million.  Large numbers of credit cards (or credit card numbers) are lost or stolen every year:  A Harris poll reported that 16% of American adults had had a credit card used by someone they didn't know.  And, a 2004 study for the Federal Trade Commission found that identity theft victims who did know who stolen their identity, nearly always reported manual (non-computer, non-digital) theft by family members, friends, neighbors, in-home employees, co-workers,  sales employees, and financial institution employees, people who had access to the physical cards, receipts, or statements. 

According to the FTC report, 4.6% of survey respondents reported they had been victims of identity theft in the past year; extrapolated across the adult population today, that would be about 10.4 million new victims per year.  If that number weren't escalating, you'd be at risk for identity theft about once every 22 years during your adult lifetime.  However, the FTC study found that the rate of discovery of identity theft nearly doubled from one year to the next.  If that trend continued, in 5 years the entire adult population would be compromised each year.  Clearly, that won't happen, as consumer awareness increases and anti-fraud technologies improves.


 In US
 Per Year
Adults   225 million 
Estimated digital records lost or stolen
with personally identifiable information
  75 million 
Estimated number of adults who give
personal information to phishers and
other online criminals             
   3.5 million
Estimated number of individuals
who were victims of identity theft (2003)  
    10.4 million

The bottom line is that there's lots of information floating around about most of us and quite a bit of it is in the hands of people or systems we never intended. 


Post Script: Should I care that I don't have much privacy?

There are two ways to think about this.  1) It's not a problem; it's just part of evolution.  Look at YouTube and MySpace; the next generation is creating permanent, open records about things that older generations would never want publicly known.  In the not-too-distant future, privacy will be dead as a concept.   2)  It is a problem.  Privacy (like discretion) is more appreciated with age.  Identity theft and credit card fraud will become such a time-consuming and costly issue that protections are a better alternative.  I admit I have my toe in the water of the first camp, but that my weight (and work) still fall heavily in the second.

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Topics: public policy, privacy, technology b2c

Fun with Numbers - Women's Clothing Sizes

Posted by K Krasnow Waterman on Sun, May 20, 2007 @ 22:05 PM
The last few years, there's been a lot of discussion about women's body image, how destructive it is to many young women's psyches to think they have to look like supermodels.  To counter that perception, in 2002 Jamie Lee Curtis famously allowed near-naked photos of her over-40 body to appear in More Magazine. A year or so ago, Dove soap began an ad series called Campaign for Real Beauty, featuring an array of beautiful but mixed size women.  This year, retired model and TV talk personality Tyra Banks admitted to a 30 pound weight gain and talked repeatedly about the need for acceptance of more realistic body images.

Yesterday, while web-surfing for something else, I came across some interesting and related information.  Who knew that the Department of Commerce's National Institute for Standards and Technology (NIST), the guys who test things like the accuracy of fingerprint matching technology, are also interested in women's clothing?  They explain that standardized sizes are a relatively recent phenomenon, since people used to make their own clothes.  When the issue of standardizing ready-to-wear clothes arose in the late 1940's, NIST (then NBS) actually appointed an Acting-Secretary of the Sub-Committee on Body Measurements for Wearing Apparel Sizes and Measurements. The resulting standard remains in place today.  Since people have changed over the last 60 years, a new measurement study was begun in the 1990's.

In 2004, a company called TCSquared, published preliminary data after measuring more than 6,000 women in the US.  Although they subdivided the women into groups, I've averaged the results below:

                                         Bust        Waist        Hips

Women 18-35                        40.2        33.5        42.5
Women 36-65                        42.7        36.3        44.6

Women's clothing used to come in sizes 6-16 and, now, come in sizes 0-22.  Either way, the sizes in the middle, the ones you'd expect to fit the average person are 10-12.  But, here's a comparison to the size 12's of some of today's most successful manufacturer's of women's clothes:

                                          Bust         Waist       Hips

Women 18-35                        40.2         33.5         42.5
Women 36-65                        42.7         36.3         44.6
Talbots                                   38            30            40
Gap                                        38.5         31.5         40.75
Ann Taylor Loft                      38.5         31.0         41.0
Lauren (Ralph Lauren)            39.5         31.5         42.5

The dimensions are similar for JCrew, Brooks Brothers, Liz Claiborne, etc.  And, what size would you have to buy if you were the average-sized 18 to 35 year-old?  For these brands, either a 14 (L) or 16 (XL).  And, if you're an average-sized 36 to 65 year-old?  For these brands, either an 18 (XL) or a 20 (XXL). 

No wonder women have body issues.  The major manufacturers just keep telling average sized women that they're Large or Extra Large.



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Topics: womens measurements, womens clothing sizes, b2c customer service

Fun with Numbers - Presidential Syllables

Posted by K Krasnow Waterman on Tue, Apr 17, 2007 @ 23:04 PM
There's an interesting sidebar to all the presidential candidate analysis.  While most folks are pondering Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's stance on the issues, quite a few people are pondering whether the number of syllables in the candidate's name is a significant factor in elections. 

Before the last election, freelance writer Joy Tomme noted that "(w)e've had 12 one-syllable Presidents, 19 two-syllable Presidents and 11 three-syllable Presidents. Only Eisenhower carries the banner for four syllabics."  She asserted that a successful candidate needs to have a one or two syllable name.  At the same time, a fellow named Chuck Annesi posted an analysis supporting the idea that people are more likely to prefer a name with more syllables. Nashville Scene writer Bruce Barry thought that Bush was facing long odds since the last one syllable president before him was 120 years ago and Grant was (until 2004) the only one-syllable president to be elected twice.  And, three syllable candidates?  Barry notes that Teddy Roosevelt was the last three-syllable vice president and many have noted that it's been more than 40 years since Kennedy, our last three syllable president, was elected.

I like to play with numbers, so here's my contribution to the topic.  I wondered how all these elections correlated to name distribution in the population.  So, first I compared the distribution of presidential names over history with the 100 most common last names in the United States:
                  
                             Presidents          Most Common
                             Over time          Names in US

1 syllable                  29%                    30%

2 syllable                   45%                   54%

3 syllable                   26%                   16%
   
Should we read from this that we're due for a few two syllable presidents?  Or, does it reflect a change in the distribution of names over time?  I haven't got time for serious, Ph.D. type research, so I looked for a quick differentiator.  I decided to look at US Senators and Representatives, people elected recently enough that I could see their correlation to current name distributions.
             
                             Presidents          Most Common
                             Over time          Names in US           Senators          Representatives

1 syllable                  28%                    30%                    19%                    20%

2 syllable                   44%                   54%                    56%                    57%

3 syllable                   26%                   16%                    20%                    19%

4 syllable                     2%                      0%                     3%                     5%

So, what do you think?  Have three syllable names been overrepresented in our Presidents?  Are we due for a two syllable president?  Based upon these theories, Clinton will beat Obama to the ticket and Giuliani will fall behind Romney or, maybe, Fred Thompson!  You, too, can be a "political linguist"  -- just send your opinion!




    
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Topics: democracy, public policy

More on the HPV Vaccine

Posted by K Krasnow Waterman on Fri, Mar 30, 2007 @ 02:03 AM
Although it's not my intention to become a medical blog, I see that I've had a lot of hits on this topic and so want to provide a little follow-up.

I found a discussion from The American College of Pediatricians  which is very informative.  Since it's a little long, I give the highlights from my perspective.  The Merck trials provided three immunizations over a six month period.  They involved a much larger number of young girls than I had understood (over 1100 between the ages of 9 and 15).  Antibodies to HPV peaked 7 months after treatment and then diminished, stabilizing about three years after the treatment at a level higher than before the treatment.  (However, to date, the longest follow-on study has only looked at patients four years after treatment.)

The College of Pediatricians refers to the results as "limited, short term data" and recommends:
1) that drug manufacturers establish registries of patients given the vaccine (so that long term effects can be studied)
2) that vaccine recipients be informed of that the knowledge about the vaccine's effectiveness or life span has limitations
3) that consideration be given to waiting to give the vaccine until a recipient is sexually active
4) that recipients be informed that the vaccine does not make sex "safe"

The College of Pediatricians is opposed to legislation which makes the vaccine mandatory for school attendance, noting that the disease can only be spread through "penetrating vaginal intercourse."  The College is also concerned about the ethical dilemma of having to explain sexual conduct to a nine year-old (required before administering the drug), when the child's parents may not have yet introduced the subject (since most 9 year olds in the US are not sexually active and have not reached puberty).
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Topics: Gardasil, hpv vaccine, technology - medicine, public policy

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