There's an interesting sidebar to all the presidential candidate analysis. While most folks are pondering Hillary Clinton's and Barack Obama's stance on the issues, quite a few people are pondering whether the number of syllables in the candidate's name is a significant factor in elections.
Before the last election, freelance writer Joy Tomme noted that "(w)e've had 12 one-syllable Presidents, 19 two-syllable Presidents and 11
three-syllable Presidents. Only Eisenhower carries the banner for four
syllabics." She asserted that a successful candidate needs to have a one or two syllable name. At the same time, a fellow named Chuck Annesi posted an analysis supporting the idea that people are more likely to prefer a name with more syllables. Nashville Scene writer Bruce Barry thought that Bush was facing long odds since the last one syllable president before him was 120 years ago and Grant was (until 2004) the only one-syllable president to be elected twice. And, three syllable candidates? Barry notes that Teddy Roosevelt was the last three-syllable vice president and many have noted that it's been more than 40 years since Kennedy, our last three syllable president, was elected.
I like to play with numbers, so here's my contribution to the topic. I wondered how all these elections correlated to name distribution in the population. So, first I compared the distribution of presidential names over history with the 100 most common last names in the United States:
Presidents Most Common
Over time Names in US
1 syllable 29% 30%
2 syllable 45% 54%
3 syllable 26% 16%
Should we read from this that we're due for a few two syllable presidents? Or, does it reflect a change in the distribution of names over time? I haven't got time for serious, Ph.D. type research, so I looked for a quick differentiator. I decided to look at US Senators and Representatives, people elected recently enough that I could see their correlation to current name distributions.
Presidents Most Common
Over time Names in US Senators Representatives
1 syllable 28% 30% 19% 20%
2 syllable 44% 54% 56% 57%
3 syllable 26% 16% 20% 19%
4 syllable 2% 0% 3% 5%
So, what do you think? Have three syllable names been overrepresented in our Presidents? Are we due for a two syllable president? Based upon these theories, Clinton will beat Obama to the ticket and Giuliani will fall behind Romney or, maybe, Fred Thompson! You, too, can be a "political linguist" -- just send your opinion!